Retailers slogging through roller coaster of feast and famine
Consumers appear unconvinced that the country is headed forrecovery anytime soon. April retail sales fell 0.4 percent comparedto March and 1.7 percent year-over-year, according to the CommerceDepartment.
Following January and February, months in which national retailsales rose, the drops in March and April signal retailers that 2009could be a year of uncertainty.
The arrival of warmer temperatures with the onset of springhelped the garden and sporting goods sectors. Sales at buildingmaterial, garden equipment and supplies dealers rose 0.3 percentcompared to March, while sporting goods, hobby, book and musicstores sales also jumped 0.3 percent.
Consumers' focus on necessities pushed health and personal caresales up 0.4 percent, but even with help from the Easter holiday,consumers shunned groceries, apparel and gifts. Sales at electronicand appliance stores dropped 2.8 percent, while groceries stores sawa 1 percent decline and apparel store sales dropped 3 percent.
While some economists have predicted the nation could jump into arecovery during the second half of 2009, it's difficult to foresee apositive trend in the retail segment.
'Consumers remain heavily in debt, the saving rate is low,although at least it is in positive territory and home prices arestill declining,' said Tucker Hart Adams, chief economist for U.S.Bank's Rocky Mountain Region and president of the Adams Group. 'So,I can't see the rebound in consumer spending that is necessary for asustainable recovery.'
Adams also said that it's too easy to read trends into monthlyretail figures.
'Economists rely too heavily on month-to-month changes ineconomic variables,' she said. 'Whether or not retail sales rose orfell for one month in April shouldn't influence one's forecast.'
Instead, Adams cites larger, longer-term indicators whenpredicting an outlook for any economic recovery.
'I think the rate of decline in the economy will slow as we movethrough 2009, but I don't expect growth until 2010 and I think therecovery will be very sluggish,' she said. 'The bottom line is we'llcontinue to lose hundreds of thousands of jobs a month; theunemployment rate will continue to rise; more people will be workingpart time or temporary jobs because they've had their hours cut ortheir position eliminated and equity in our homes will continue toshrink. We've dodged the bullet of total financial meltdown, sothat's good, but consumers are still in trouble.'
The Attic finds new home
Veteran Old Colorado City merchant Charles Irwin has moved TheAttic three blocks west on Colorado Avenue and increased his retailspace by 200 feet.
The Attic's new home is at 2716 W. Colorado Ave. Irwin purchasedthe location last July, but was renting it as residential property.
'It was in our long-term plans anyway to move to his location,but since our renters moved out, it made sense to move now,' Irwinsaid. 'Luckily we refurbished the location back when we purchasedit, so it's brand new.'
Irwin will offer more of his most popular items at the new store:fragrance oils, body oils, incense, the store's own line of candles,fused-glass jewelry, greeting cards and Birch Wood Roses.
'I was concerned about moving down here, but the week of Mother'sDay I had my best sales week since October,' he said. 'We did betterthis Mother's Day than we did last year. We sold something like 45dozen of the roses.'
With Territory Days approaching May 23-25, Irwin's says it'sdifficult to hide his excitement as a business owner, even asretailers nationwide continue to struggle.
'I'm seeing the economy on the move,' he said. 'People arepurchasing things that they weren't six months ago and I've hadcustomers tell me they try to buy local, which is what I try to dowith my suppliers, too.'
New grass-fed beef supplier
Panorama Meats Inc., an organic grass-fed beef supplier, haspartnered with Arapahoe Ranch, a certified organic cattle operation,to supply organic grass-fed beef exclusively to Whole Foods Marketstores in the Rocky Mountain region.
Operated by the Northern Arapahoe Indian Tribe on Wyoming's WindRiver Indian Reservation, Arapahoe Ranch raises an all-Angus herd ona year-round diet of grass and forbs. Its cattle never enter afeedlot, are never given antibiotics or growth-stimulating hormonesand coexist with predators on Wyoming's high plains.
The agreement comes after six months of negotiations betweenPanorama and the Northern Arapahoe Indian Tribe council and makesWhole Foods Market stores in Colorado, New Mexico, Kansas and Utah,the exclusive U.S. retailers of Arapahoe Ranch beef.
Whole Foods Market said in a news release that it plans to offerthe certified organic beef at $1 per pound above natural beefchoices.
Scott Prater covers retail for the Colorado Springs BusinessJournal.
